War in Ukraine and Iran Affected Fuel Prices in Tajikistan

While Tajikistan is still feeling the effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine on domestic fuel prices, the escalating military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has further exacerbated this problem.

Over the past two days, amid new US strikes and escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices have increased by more than 4-5%, reaching approximately $94.6 per barrel. WTI crude oil also exceeded $90.

Experts attribute the rise in oil prices to concerns about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil market passes. At the same time, the increase in fuel prices in Tajikistan, which began this summer, was mainly caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine and problems with the supply of Russian oil to the market.

Tajikistan imports over 90% of its petroleum products from Russia, and any changes in Russia’s fuel production or export affect Tajikistan’s domestic market.

As a result, the price of AI-92 gasoline in Dushanbe, which was 10.90 somoni per liter in early June, has now risen to 13.50 somoni. Diesel fuel, which previously cost 11 somoni, has now increased to 16.50 somoni, and at some gas stations, it is even sold for 17–18 somoni.

Tajik authorities previously linked the rise in fuel prices to the situation in global markets and the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products. Meanwhile, amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, experts suggest that global oil prices may rise even further, and this could have an even greater impact on fuel costs in Tajikistan in the coming months.